我国肉牛业作为畜牧业的重要组成部分，在保障动物蛋白供给和推动乡村振兴方面具有关键作用，但产业发展长期滞后于其他畜牧产业。进入21世纪以来，牛肉消费需求持续增长，2024年人均消费量达7.5 kg/年，但国内供给能力不足，进口量占国内产量的36.8%。产业面临生产效率偏低、规模化进程缓慢、国际竞争力弱等结构性矛盾，2023年全球竞争力排名仅列第34位。从历史演进看，肉牛业经历了从役用向肉用的转型、良种繁育技术突破及政策支持体系完善等阶段，但受农业机械化挤出效应、资源约束及散养模式成本失衡等因素制约，发展速度缓慢。产业区域格局呈现从传统中原产区向资源禀赋优势区转移的趋势。未来高质量发展需以资源禀赋为基础，优化区域布局，构建沿胡焕庸线的“繁育-育肥”分工体系；培育多元化经营主体，保留并赋能小散养户；推广农牧结合循环模式，加强良种繁育与技术创新；推动产业链差异化与品牌化升级；挖掘南方丘陵山区潜力。同时，需建立长效政策支持体系，以应对产业周期长、风险高的特性，实现供给安全与竞争力提升。

As a crucial component of the livestock sector, beef cattle industry in China plays a key role in ensuring animal protein supply and promoting rural revitalization. However, its development has long lagged behind other livestock industries. Since the beginning of the 21st century, beef consumption demand has continued to grow, reaching 7.5 kg per capita annually in 2024. Yet, domestic supply capacity remains insufficient, leading to a rising import dependency rate of 36.8%. The industry faces structural challenges, including low production efficiency, slow progress in scaling up operations, and weak international competitiveness, ranking only 34th globally in 2023. Historically, the industry has evolved through stages such as transitioning from draft to meat purposes, breakthroughs in improved breeding technologies, and the refinement of policy support systems. However, its development has been constrained by factors like the crowding-out effect of agricultural mechanization, resource limitations, and cost imbalances in small-scale farming models, resulting in slow growth. The regional industrial layout shows a shift from traditional central production areas to regions with comparative resource advantages. For future high-quality development, it is essential to optimize regional layouts based on resource endowments and establish a "breeding-fattening" division system along the Hu Line. Efforts should focus on cultivating diversified business entities, retaining and empowering small-scale farmers, promoting integrated crop-livestock circular models, strengthening improved breeding and technological innovation, fostering differentiated and branded upgrades of the industry chain, and tapping into the potential of hilly and mountainous areas in southern China. Additionally, establishing a long-term policy support system is necessary to address the industry's long cycles and high risks, thereby achieving supply security and enhancing competitiveness.