我国肉牛业发展现状、历史演进与未来发展路径研究

doi:10.19543/j.cnki.1673-4556.20260329.004

中国畜禽种业 ›› 2026, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (6): 10-17.doi: 10.19543/j.cnki.1673-4556.20260329.004cstr: 32418.14.j.cnki.1673-4556.20260329.004

• 特约 • 下一篇

我国肉牛业发展现状、历史演进与未来发展路径研究

陈伟生¹, 李立望²(), 彭华²()

^1.中国动物疫病预防控制中心（农业农村部屠宰技术中心），北京 100125
^2.中国农业科学院农业信息研究所，北京

收稿日期:2026-02-04 出版日期:2026-06-26 发布日期:2026-07-06
通讯作者: 李立望,彭华 E-mail:liliwang@caas.cn;penghua@caas.cn
作者简介:陈伟生（1964—），男，研究员，长期在畜牧兽医领域从事管理和技术推广工作。
基金资助:
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(JBYW-AII-2024-37);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(JBYW-AII-2023-39)

Research on the current status, historical evolution, and future development path of beef cattle industry in China

Weisheng Chen¹, Liwang Li²(), Hua Peng²()

^1.China Animal Disease Control Center (Slaughter Technology Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs), Beijing, 100125
^2.Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081

Received:2026-02-04 Online:2026-06-26 Published:2026-07-06
Contact: Liwang Li, Hua Peng E-mail:liliwang@caas.cn;penghua@caas.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

我国肉牛业作为畜牧业的重要组成部分，在保障动物蛋白供给和推动乡村振兴方面具有关键作用，但产业发展长期滞后于其他畜牧产业。进入21世纪以来，牛肉消费需求持续增长，2024年人均消费量达7.5 kg/年，但国内供给能力不足，进口量占国内产量的36.8%。产业面临生产效率偏低、规模化进程缓慢、国际竞争力弱等结构性矛盾，2023年全球竞争力排名仅列第34位。从历史演进看，肉牛业经历了从役用向肉用的转型、良种繁育技术突破及政策支持体系完善等阶段，但受农业机械化挤出效应、资源约束及散养模式成本失衡等因素制约，发展速度缓慢。产业区域格局呈现从传统中原产区向资源禀赋优势区转移的趋势。未来高质量发展需以资源禀赋为基础，优化区域布局，构建沿胡焕庸线的“繁育-育肥”分工体系；培育多元化经营主体，保留并赋能小散养户；推广农牧结合循环模式，加强良种繁育与技术创新；推动产业链差异化与品牌化升级；挖掘南方丘陵山区潜力。同时，需建立长效政策支持体系，以应对产业周期长、风险高的特性，实现供给安全与竞争力提升。

关键词: 肉牛产业, 发展现状, 历史演进, 发展路径

Abstract:

As a crucial component of the livestock sector, beef cattle industry in China plays a key role in ensuring animal protein supply and promoting rural revitalization. However, its development has long lagged behind other livestock industries. Since the beginning of the 21st century, beef consumption demand has continued to grow, reaching 7.5 kg per capita annually in 2024. Yet, domestic supply capacity remains insufficient, leading to a rising import dependency rate of 36.8%. The industry faces structural challenges, including low production efficiency, slow progress in scaling up operations, and weak international competitiveness, ranking only 34th globally in 2023. Historically, the industry has evolved through stages such as transitioning from draft to meat purposes, breakthroughs in improved breeding technologies, and the refinement of policy support systems. However, its development has been constrained by factors like the crowding-out effect of agricultural mechanization, resource limitations, and cost imbalances in small-scale farming models, resulting in slow growth. The regional industrial layout shows a shift from traditional central production areas to regions with comparative resource advantages. For future high-quality development, it is essential to optimize regional layouts based on resource endowments and establish a "breeding-fattening" division system along the Hu Line. Efforts should focus on cultivating diversified business entities, retaining and empowering small-scale farmers, promoting integrated crop-livestock circular models, strengthening improved breeding and technological innovation, fostering differentiated and branded upgrades of the industry chain, and tapping into the potential of hilly and mountainous areas in southern China. Additionally, establishing a long-term policy support system is necessary to address the industry's long cycles and high risks, thereby achieving supply security and enhancing competitiveness.

Key words: Beef cattle industry, Current status, Historical evolution, Development path

中图分类号:

S823

陈伟生, 李立望, 彭华. 我国肉牛业发展现状、历史演进与未来发展路径研究[J]. 中国畜禽种业, 2026, 22(6): 10-17.

Weisheng Chen, Liwang Li, Hua Peng. Research on the current status, historical evolution, and future development path of beef cattle industry in China[J]. Chinese Livestock and Poultry Breeding, 2026, 22(6): 10-17.

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产品类型Product category	2001年/万t	2024年/万t	增长幅度Growth rate/%
肉类（总计）Meat (Total)	6105.8	9780.0	60.02
奶类Milk	1122.9	4079.0	263.25
禽蛋Poultry eggs	2210.1	3588.0	62.34
猪肉Pork	4051.7	5706.0	40.83
禽肉Poultry meat	1176.1	2660.0	126.17
牛肉Beef	508.6	779.0	53.16
羊肉Mutton	271.8	518.0	90.58
其他Others	97.6	117.0	19.87

产业类型Industry type	参与国家数Number of participating countries	全球排名Global ranking
综合竞争力指数Comprehensive competitiveness index	135	5
蛋禽Laying poultry industry	108	1
生猪Swine industry	112	6
肉禽Meat poultry industry	109	7
肉羊Mutton sheep industry	108	5
肉牛Beef cattle industry	124	34
奶业Dairy industry	132	42

地区District	国家Country	1995年	2008年	2016年	2022年
南美洲South America	巴西Brazil	0.05	0.02	9.90	21.69
	阿根廷Argentina	0.63	3.52	2.06	6.64
	乌拉圭Uruguay	0.74	0.96	3.53	4.89
北美洲North America	美国United States	18.72	31.95	13.85	12.55
北美洲North America	加拿大Canada	2.50	3.45	4.71	0.98
大洋洲Oceania	新西兰New Zealand	15.35	9.42	15.31	18.19
大洋洲Oceania	澳大利亚Australia	32.30	28.63	16.82	12.23
欧洲Europe	荷兰Netherlands	1.53	1.45	3.13	1.89
	丹麦Denmark	1.15	4.92	5.86	2.08
	西班牙 Spain	0.09	0.43	4.49	4.13
	德国 Germany	0.70	1.15	6.81	0.92
	法国 France	0.68	5.88	3.25	1.86
合计Total		74.44	91.76	89.72	88.05

成本类型Cost type	2010年	2020年	2023年	2010—2023年平均Average from 2010 to 2023
犊牛采购费用Calf purchase cost	63	70	59	66
饲料费用Feed cost	26	20	29	22
人工成本Labor cost	9	9	10	10
其他成本Other costs	2	1	2	2

区域Region	涵盖省份Provinces covered	发展重点Development priorities
东北区Northeast region	吉林、黑龙江、辽宁、内蒙古东部	种养结合，主导品种选育，适度规模舍饲养殖
中原区Central plains region	河北、山东、河南、安徽、湖北、湖南	标准化规模养殖，扩大养殖规模，提升集约化、机械化水平
西北区Northwest region	新疆、青海、宁夏、甘肃、陕西、内蒙古西部	保护地方特色品种，科学利用草原，建设人工饲草料基地，发展现代家庭牧场
西南区Southwest region	四川、重庆、云南、贵州、广西、西藏	挖掘草山草坡潜力，因地制宜发展特色养殖，完善疫病防控体系

我国肉牛业发展现状、历史演进与未来发展路径研究

Research on the current status, historical evolution, and future development path of beef cattle industry in China

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